Dear all,
Probably I'm wrong, but I have the feeling that there is a problem with the Hansen instability test after a DOLS estimation of cointegration parameters.
Unlike with the test performed after a FM-OLS regression, it seems to me that after a DOLS regression the test cannot never reject the null of cointegration (stability). I obtain the same result even if I completely misspecify the cointegrating regression. Indeed, the test statistic is always extremely low, such that the null is never rejected. Please note that other cointegration tests do reject the null of no cointegration.
Below you will find the ouput from the same regression using DOLS or FM-OLS. The estimated parameters are a bit different, but I can hardly believe that this difference explains the divergence in the output of the Hansen test.
Thank you very much for your help.
Mat
Dependent Variable: LOG(M1RSY)
Method: Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS)Included observations: 105 after adjustments
Cointegrating equation deterministics: C
Fixed leads and lags specification (lead=4, lag=4)
HAC standard errors & covariance (Bartlett kernel, Newey-West automatic
bandwidth = 9.0000, NW automatic lag length = 4)
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
LOG(R) -0.350357 0.059621 -5.876414 0.0000
C -2.612783 0.245019 -10.66358 0.0000
Cointegration Test - Hansen Parameter Instability
Series: LOG(M1RSY) LOG(R)
Null hypothesis: Series are cointegrated
Cointegrating equation deterministics: C
HAC score variance
Stochastic Deterministic Excluded
Lc statistic Trends (m) Trends (k) Trends (p2) Prob.*
0.004220 1 0 0
> 0.2 Dependent Variable: LOG(M1RSY)
Method: Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) Included observations: 113 after adjustments
Cointegrating equation deterministics: C
Long-run covariance estimate (Bartlett kernel, Integer Newey-West
automatic bandwidth = 9.0000, NW automatic lag length = 4)
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
LOG(R) -0.219729 0.083819 -2.621476 0.0100
C -2.177911 0.300903 -7.237923 0.0000
R-squared 0.114549 Mean dependent var -1.454140
Adjusted R-squared 0.106572 S.D. dependent var 0.363920
S.E. of regression 0.343982 Sum squared resid 13.13391
Long-run variance 0.729154
Cointegration Test - Hansen Parameter Instability
Series: LOG(M1RSY) LOG(R)
Null hypothesis: Series are cointegrated
Cointegrating equation deterministics: C
Stochastic Deterministic Excluded
Lc statistic Trends (m) Trends (k) Trends (p2) Prob.*
1.192470 1 0 0
< 0.01